22 12 / 2010
Pre-Mortem and Regret Minimization Framework
I’ve been thinking a lot about different start up ideas I want to do. Whether or not it makes sense to take the deep dive into pursuing the idea is never easy; especially if you may or may not have income coming in for the next 6 months. So I found 2 really useful frameworks for help making the big decisions.
1. Jeff Bezo’s Regret Minimization Framework:
Where you look at all your options now and then imagine yourself at age 80 and ask what option would you regret least trying out of all of them.
2. Gary Klein’s Pre-Mortem
Post-Mortem is when you look at patient that died and find out why. Pre-Mortem is the idea of imagining the patient died and try to find out why, to prevent it from happening.
Step 1: Preparation. Team members take out sheets of paper and get relaxed in their chairs. They should already be familiar with the plan, or else have the plan described to them so they can understand what is supposed to be happening.
Step 2: Imagine a fiasco. When I conduct the PreMortem, I say I am looking into a crystal ball and, oh no, I am seeing that the project has failed. It isn’t a simple failure either. It is a total, embarrassing, devastating failure. The people on the team are no longer talking to each other. Our company is not talking to the sponsors. Things have gone as wrong as they could. However, we could only afford an inexpensive model of the crystal ball so we cannot make out the reason for the failure. Then I ask, “What could have caused this?”
Step 3: Generate reasons for failure. The people on the team spend the next three minuted writing down all the reasons why they believe the failure occurred. Here is where intuitions of the team members come into play. Each person has a different set of experiences, a different set of scars, and a different mental model to bring to this task. You want to see what the collective knowledge in the room can produce.
Step 4: Consolidate the lists. When each member of the group is done writing, the facilitator goes around the room, asking each person to state one item from his or her list. Each item is recorded in a whiteboard. This process continues until every member of the group has revealed every item on their list. By the end of this step, you should have a comprehensive list of the group’s concerns with the plan as hand.
Step 5: Revisit the plan. The team can address the two or three items of greatest concern, and then schedule another meeting to discuss ideas for avoiding or minimising other problems.
Step 6: Periodically review the list. Some project leaders take out the list every the list every three to four months to keep the spectre of failure fresh, and re-sensitise the team to the problems that may be emerging. (pp 89–90)
Klein, G. (2003). Intuition at Work: Why Developing Your Gut Instincts Will Make You Better at What You Do
