28 3 / 2010
Luck vs. Skill and They Will Not Love You Long Time in Vietnam
On Zynga Poker, after playing over 1000 hands, I have a win percentage of 32%. Monitoring about every 50 hands or so; this has been pretty consistent within a +/-3%. In poker, luck and skill are both very important factors. Sometimes I’ll get really great cards and win 5 hands in a row. And that’s the thing…
Whether I’m on a winning streak or losing streak (luck or lack of), I always seem to gravitate to my average score (my skill level). So if I am winning 5 hands in a row, in my next 45 hands, it would be a much smarter bet to against the current trend of winning every hand, and bet on that I’ll stick to my ‘mean’ and win only 10 or 11 more hands of the 45 and lose the rest.
Chess is a game based on purely on skill. Roulette is a game based on purely on luck. Gaming on chics is more similar to Poker where it’s a mixture of luck (usually alcohol related, or girl on rebound) and skill; where you’re more than likely to gravitate to ‘mean’ score. Some guys have a more attribute based game (using looks or money as an advantage). Others have to rely on technique, methods, skill or whatever you want to define ‘charm’ to be.
Every so often, I or my friends living here have to go entertain people visiting Vietnam. And every so often, there are guys are just really looking to tap some ass and come in with the mindset that every local Vietnamese girl is like in ‘Full Metal Jacket’ going, “Hey, baby. You got girlfriend Vietnam? … Me so HORNY. Me love you long time. You party?” This can be annoying. This is also where I have to make people understand; that hotels are not allowed to let Vietnamese national females go up to foreigner’s hotel room after 10 pm. It’s law. So no “boom, boom” for you buddy if you’re staying at the Intercontinental, Sheraton or Hyatt. Maybe some roach infested gross motel, but that’s another story. And while there’s massages that give the hand job happy ending; but your unit is not going into anybody’s orifices. The Vietnamese government does a very good job in controlling that stuff in Ho Chi Minh City. Of course, the city still has hookers… every city does.
Going back to guys trying to game chics. If you’re not looking for hookers, then what I said about everything gravitates to your ‘average’ score based on your skill still holds true here. If you’re exceptionally good looking guy yours odds are better at scoring a one night stand than the ‘regular’ guy. If you can communicate verbally and non verbally with the local girls and build rapport, you have a stronger chance. But if you can’t even do those things and get people to find you attractive at home; your odds for scoring here will still suck. Yeah, your chances are maybe bumped up because you happen to be from out of town… but it’s going to take some skill to communicate with girls that hardly understand you and vice versa. If you’re using ‘money’ attribute based game to get chics… either you’re going to pay to take care of them for long period of time (l’ve seen the ‘smartest’ guys get milked dry) or you’re going to have to pay for them to ‘get the fuck out’ (hooker visit).
Any ‘game’ where the outcome relies on luck and skill, it will always revert to the ‘mean’ over time.
