24 8 / 2010

Trusting Your Gut + OODA Loop

I always have these conversations with my friend who likes to make gut decisions while I like to apply game theory, use analytics and make graphs & diagrams.  Emotion vs. Logic based.  I use my gut instincts more for spotting raised flags than making final call decisions.
McKinsey Quarterly a few months back wrote an interesting article on using a decision tool on whether you should follow your gut instinct or not.

  1. The familiarity test: Have we frequently experienced identical or similar situations?
  2. The feedback test: Did we get reliable feedback in past situations?
  3. The measured-emotions test: Are the emotions we have experienced in similar or related situations measured?
  4. The independence test: Are we likely to be influenced by any inappropriate personal interests or attachments?

I think these are good way to test your gut feelings; though my friend thinks it defeats the purpose with going with your gut.
I don’t know, I think if you couple this with the OODA loop process; then it can be a solid way to make decisions if you don’t have analytics.  OODA Loop is Observe (the situation), Orient (your position), Decide (your hypothesis), Act and then it loops back to O to make adaptable change in uncertain environments.

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