24 8 / 2010
Trusting Your Gut + OODA Loop
I always have these conversations with my friend who likes to make gut decisions while I like to apply game theory, use analytics and make graphs & diagrams. Emotion vs. Logic based. I use my gut instincts more for spotting raised flags than making final call decisions.
McKinsey Quarterly a few months back wrote an interesting article on using a decision tool on whether you should follow your gut instinct or not.
- The familiarity test: Have we frequently experienced identical or similar situations?
- The feedback test: Did we get reliable feedback in past situations?
- The measured-emotions test: Are the emotions we have experienced in similar or related situations measured?
- The independence test: Are we likely to be influenced by any inappropriate personal interests or attachments?
I think these are good way to test your gut feelings; though my friend thinks it defeats the purpose with going with your gut.
I don’t know, I think if you couple this with the OODA loop process; then it can be a solid way to make decisions if you don’t have analytics. OODA Loop is Observe (the situation), Orient (your position), Decide (your hypothesis), Act and then it loops back to O to make adaptable change in uncertain environments.
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